China 2011/12 GDP 9.4/9.2%

2011-5-24
Goldman lower China 2011/12 GDP forecast to 9.4/9.2 percent (from 10/9.5 percent previously) as weaker US growth, higher oil prices and  inflation:

new GDP estimates show a significant slowdown in 2Q11 to 8.0% qoq (significantly below trend), then recovering towards trend in 3Q11 at 9.0% and returning to trend in 4Q11 at 9.3%. This is both a sharper and more extended slowdown than we had previously forecast.

forecasts China CPI yoy to peak in June at 5.6% on yoy terms.. Inflation may remain at more than 5% yoy until August, leading us to raise our 2011 CPI forecast from 4.3% to 4.7%... expect policy inflection sometime in 3Q11 to normalize on the back of monetary policy and a potentially more proactive fiscal stance.





FT Alphaville » Goldman warns of significant China slowdown