統整一下FOMC會後聲明的重要內容
1.未來將維持幾近於零的利率至少兩年，到2013年年中。
長期維持超低利率=聯準會自己承認美國已經陷入日本式衰退
日本10年期的公債殖利率僅僅只有1%上下. 美國10年期公債殖利率創下2.182%。已經非常接近海嘯時期
2.美國經濟成長已被證實較預期微弱，
3.將維持目前的到期有價證券本金再投資政策，
這將會維持聯準會資產負債表的規模也就是維持寬鬆貨幣環境
沒有增加任何1毛錢 ，代表這市場仍然不會有新的資金挹注
所以接下來貨幣螺旋緊縮的效果將不會消失
聽聽伯南克說什麼
2011年8月10日
Fed: Low rates to stay till at least mid-2013
2011-08-10 The Federal Reserve said it would hold interest rates at ultralow levels “at least” through mid-2013, the first time the central bank put a time frame on their duration.
1.slower pace of recovery over coming quarters. Downside risks to the economic outlook have increased
2. the unemployment rate will decline only gradually” from the July level of 9.1%,
Fed: Low rates to stay till at least mid-2013 - The Fed - MarketWatch
1.slower pace of recovery over coming quarters. Downside risks to the economic outlook have increased
2. the unemployment rate will decline only gradually” from the July level of 9.1%,
Fed: Low rates to stay till at least mid-2013 - The Fed - MarketWatch
2011年6月23日
US 2011 GDP- 2.8%
2011-6-22 FOMC keep Fed funds rate between 0% and 0.25% since December 2008.
rates are likely to stay low for at least two or three meetings of inaction, and possibly longer.
The central bank cut its growth forecast for the second time this year, as the midpoint of its 2011 gross domestic projection is now 2.8%, down from 3.2% in April and 3.65% in January.
Bernanke signals uncertainty as Fed ends QE2 The Fed - MarketWatch
rates are likely to stay low for at least two or three meetings of inaction, and possibly longer.
The central bank cut its growth forecast for the second time this year, as the midpoint of its 2011 gross domestic projection is now 2.8%, down from 3.2% in April and 3.65% in January.
Bernanke signals uncertainty as Fed ends QE2 The Fed - MarketWatch
2011年6月21日
QE2 後, 美元升值, 熱錢買美國公債
QE2 後, 2011年下半年開始美國公債面臨集中到期的問題
目前70%公債買盤來自聯準會30%來自於國外。
美國公債借新還舊的買盤要從何而來?
當QE2結束不在印製鈔票+歐債危機引爆造成美元快速升值，當美元走強的時候會引發世界熱錢拆槓桿回流美國，這些熱錢的獲利很大一部分是靠美元貶值，當美元升值的時候國際熱錢成本就會提高，這時候無利可圖的國際熱錢必定快速回流美國。並戳破新興市場與商品原物料泡沫破滅
這時候回流美國的資金是恐慌避險，不可能會回流到股票只會往公債與現金部位跑
當美元持續走升會讓越來越多的熱錢回流這樣就可以解決美國公債沒有人買的問題
美國公債誰來買?
目前70%公債買盤來自聯準會30%來自於國外。
美國公債借新還舊的買盤要從何而來?
當QE2結束不在印製鈔票+歐債危機引爆造成美元快速升值，當美元走強的時候會引發世界熱錢拆槓桿回流美國，這些熱錢的獲利很大一部分是靠美元貶值，當美元升值的時候國際熱錢成本就會提高，這時候無利可圖的國際熱錢必定快速回流美國。並戳破新興市場與商品原物料泡沫破滅
這時候回流美國的資金是恐慌避險，不可能會回流到股票只會往公債與現金部位跑
當美元持續走升會讓越來越多的熱錢回流這樣就可以解決美國公債沒有人買的問題
美國公債誰來買?
2011年6月2日
QE2 stimulate demand in H2 of 2011
Stock market outlook: Q3, 2011- Q2-2012
1) QE2 started last November and end at June of 2011. It takes 6 to 18 months before the dollar hits the U.S. economy in a meaningful way. So expect $600 billion to start hitting toward the end of 2011.
Once the stimulus hits the economy, it’s not just $600 billion. It’s probably more like $3 trillion. The multiplier effect is 5 to 10X. A bubble may happen in 2013.
Economics 101: Price is ruled by supply and demand. Nonfinancial companies are at their highest cash levels for bad times. Stock buy-backs are at their highest levels. When Corporate profits are at their highest levels and QE2's money come to market, the demand and stock price will increase.
2) Barack Obama wants to get re-elected. The tax cuts got extended.
3) unemployment? In every recession Period, Companies hire temp workers first before they hire full-time workers.
4) Innovation. Barely a year ago the iPad came out.
Next stop: Dow 20,000 Outside the Box - MarketWatch
1) QE2 started last November and end at June of 2011. It takes 6 to 18 months before the dollar hits the U.S. economy in a meaningful way. So expect $600 billion to start hitting toward the end of 2011.
Once the stimulus hits the economy, it’s not just $600 billion. It’s probably more like $3 trillion. The multiplier effect is 5 to 10X. A bubble may happen in 2013.
Economics 101: Price is ruled by supply and demand. Nonfinancial companies are at their highest cash levels for bad times. Stock buy-backs are at their highest levels. When Corporate profits are at their highest levels and QE2's money come to market, the demand and stock price will increase.
2) Barack Obama wants to get re-elected. The tax cuts got extended.
3) unemployment? In every recession Period, Companies hire temp workers first before they hire full-time workers.
4) Innovation. Barely a year ago the iPad came out.
Next stop: Dow 20,000 Outside the Box - MarketWatch
2011年5月21日
QE2結束將挫傷股市 債市與商品
2011-5-20 Fed結束第二次的大量債券收購行動(又稱QE2)後，股市、債市、黃金和歐元3個月內預計走跌。
一旦Fed停止印鈔票後，美元應會上漲。
第三季油價和金價會因美元上漲而進一步下滑。
10年期美國公債利率將上升?
QE2一結束，市場波動會更加劇烈。隨著全球流動資金減少，投資者不計代價地採取風險的意願也會降低，波動性也隨之增加。
美國和新興市場股市會走跌，S&P 500指數和MSCI新興市場股指下滑。
股市與其他有形資產一樣，過去都受惠於QE政策。」「但這都是虛幻的，因為股市和商品價格的上升，大多是因資產級別計算的貨幣貶值所致。」
歐債危機、中國經濟冷卻、美國就業市場疲弱…
投資人應啟動戒備！分析師：QE2結束將挫傷股市 債市與商品 - Yahoo!奇摩股市
一旦Fed停止印鈔票後，美元應會上漲。
第三季油價和金價會因美元上漲而進一步下滑。
10年期美國公債利率將上升?
QE2一結束，市場波動會更加劇烈。隨著全球流動資金減少，投資者不計代價地採取風險的意願也會降低，波動性也隨之增加。
美國和新興市場股市會走跌，S&P 500指數和MSCI新興市場股指下滑。
股市與其他有形資產一樣，過去都受惠於QE政策。」「但這都是虛幻的，因為股市和商品價格的上升，大多是因資產級別計算的貨幣貶值所致。」
歐債危機、中國經濟冷卻、美國就業市場疲弱…
投資人應啟動戒備！分析師：QE2結束將挫傷股市 債市與商品 - Yahoo!奇摩股市
2011年5月9日
Gas price spike impact to be in week’s data Economic Preview - MarketWatch
The muted wage growth means it’s difficult for companies to pass on increased commodity prices — which traders will get to see Thursday with the release of producer prices — to consumers. And with the unemployment rate so high, at 9% in April, wage growth doesn’t appear in the cards.
Gas price spike impact to be in week’s data Economic Preview - MarketWatch
Gas price spike impact to be in week’s data Economic Preview - MarketWatch
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