2011年6月2日

QE2 stimulate demand in H2 of 2011

Stock market outlook: Q3, 2011- Q2-2012

1) QE2 started last November and end at June of 2011.   It takes 6 to 18 months before the dollar hits the U.S. economy in a meaningful way. So expect $600 billion to start hitting toward the end of 2011. 
     Once the stimulus hits the economy, it’s not just $600 billion. It’s probably more like $3 trillion.  The multiplier effect is 5 to 10X.   A bubble may happen  in 2013.
      Economics 101: Price is ruled by supply and demand.  Nonfinancial companies are at their highest cash levels  for bad times.  Stock buy-backs are at their highest levels. When Corporate profits are at their highest levels and QE2's money come to market, the demand and stock price will increase.


2)   Barack Obama  wants to get re-elected. The tax cuts got extended.

3)  unemployment? In every recession Period, Companies hire temp workers first before they hire full-time workers.
4) Innovation. Barely a year ago the iPad came out.



Next stop: Dow 20,000 Outside the Box - MarketWatch

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